TO:

Members of the Legislative Commission on Pensions and Retirement

FROM:

Lawrence A. Martin, Executive Director

RE:
Review of Recent Actuarial Experience Studies

DATE:

August 15, 2001

 

Introduction

Quadrennially, the consulting actuary retained by the Legislative Commission on Pensions and Retirement is required by statute and contract to prepare an experience study for each of the three largest Minnesota public employee pension plans, namely the General State Employees Retirement Plan of the Minnesota State Retirement System (MSRS-General), the General Employee Retirement Plan of the Public Employees Retirement Association (PERA-General), and the Teachers Retirement Association (TRA). The consulting actuary, Milliman USA (formerly Milliman & Robertson, Inc.) completed work on the most recent set of quadrennial experience studies for the three retirement plans on May 29, 2001. Also, under a separate agreement with the various Minnesota retirement plans, Milliman USA competed a study on February 23, 2001, on the liability impact of the Combined Service Annuity portability provisions. Additionally, the three first class city teacher retirement fund associations (the Duluth Teachers Retirement Fund Association (DTRFA), the Minneapolis Teachers Retirement Fund Association (MTRFA), and the St. Paul Teachers Retirement Fund Association (StPTRFA)) have independently contracted with Milliman USA to prepare special experience studies for each plan for the period 1994-2000. This memorandum summarizes those six experience studies, the Combined Service Annuity liability study, and the probable or actual recommendations by Milliman USA for changes in actuarial assumptions.

Quadrennial Experience Study Requirement

The Legislative Commission on Pensions and Retirement is required under Minnesota Statutes, Section 3.85, to contract with an established actuarial consulting firm to prepare annual actuarial valuations of fourteen statewide or major local Minnesota public employee pension plans and to prepare experience studies for the General State Employees Retirement Plan of the Minnesota State Retirement System (MSRS-General), the General Employee Retirement Plan of the Public Employees Retirement Association (PERA-General), and the Teachers Retirement Association (TRA) on a quadrennial basis. Minnesota Statutes, Section 356.215, specifies the content requirements of both the annual actuarial valuation reports and quadrennial experience studies. The quadrennial experience study is required to contain an actuarial analysis of the experience of the plan and a comparison of that plan experience with the actuarial assumptions in force for the most recent annual actuarial experience. The standards for actuarial work, issued by the Commission, specify the detailed contents and format requirements for both the actuarial valuation reports and the experience studies.

The purpose of the quadrennial experience studies is to provide the Commission with a periodic opportunity to review the accuracy of the current actuarial assumptions, compared to the experience for the most recent period and to revise those actuarial assumptions based on the recommendation for the Commission’s consulting actuary and on input from plan administrators, their actuarial consultants, and others.

Minnesota public pension plan actuarial assumptions are specified in part in statute (interest/investment return, individual salary increase, and payroll growth) and specified in part with Commission approval (the balance of all actuarial assumptions).

Summary of Recent Experience Studies

Table 1 summarizes the recent experience studies prepared by Milliman USA for the General State Employees Retirement Plan of the Minnesota State Retirement System (MSRS-General), the General Employee Retirement Plan of the Public Employees Retirement Association (PERA-General), the Teachers Retirement Association (TRA), the Duluth Teachers Retirement Fund Association (DTRFA), the Minneapolis Teachers Retirement Fund Association (MTRFA), and the St. Paul Teachers Retirement Fund Association (StPTRFA). The table summarizes the experience of each plan in comparison to seven actuarial assumptions:

Based on the percentage comparison of the actual occurrences with the expected occurrences under the actuarial assumptions, the experience is either favorable from the plan’s perspective (reduces liabilities) or unfavorable from the plan’s perspective (increases liabilities), as follows:

Interest/Investment Return: Investment earnings in excess of the actuarial assumption are an actuarial gain and reduce accrued liabilities, offsetting the need for contributions.

Salary Increase: Individual salary increases in excess of the actuarial assumption are an actuarial loss and increase accrued liabilities, because a larger salary produces a larger future projected retirement annuity, creating a need for contributions.

Payroll Growth: Total payroll growth in excess of the actuarial assumption relates to the amortization of the unfunded actuarial accrued liability of the plan, with a greater total payroll providing greater base over which to spread the associated amortization contribution.

Retirement: Retirement before age 65, the general normal retirement age, generally produce actuarial losses. Retirement after age 65, the general normal retirement age, produces actuarial gains for the pension plan.

Disability: Because disability benefits are a full accrued retirement benefit paid at an early age, disabilities in excess of the disability assumption produce an actuarial loss.

Terminations: Because a terminating employee releases more liability than the person takes in a refund, terminations in excess of the actuarial assumption will produce an actuarial gain unless the terminating member ultimately qualifies for a combined service annuity.

Mortality: Mortality (the number of deaths) greater than assumed produces an actuarial gain with respect to annuitants, with respect to disabilitants, and, unless a substantial survivorship benefit is involved, with respect to active members.

Click here for Table 1

Summary Of The Combined Service Annuity Study

Upon the request of the executive directors of the Minnesota State Retirement System (MSRS), the Public Employees Retirement Association (PERA), and the Teachers Retirement Association (TRA), and at their expense, Milliman USA competed a study of the actuarial liability shifts under the Combined Service Annuity provision, Minnesota Statutes, Section 356.30.

The Combined Service Annuity provision was enacted in 1975 and permits most Minnesota public pension plan members with service credit in more than one plan to vest with their multiple service and to receive retirement annuities in total that would essentially match the benefit payable by any one of the plans for the total service. For the pension plan or plans covering early periods of service credit, the Combined Service Annuity provision results in incurring greater actuarial accrued liabilities in fact because of the new salary figure that the plan or plans anticipated without knowledge of the subsequent service credit and average salary.

In preparing the Combined Service Annuity study, Milliman USA combined the active and inactive member databases of the Minnesota public pension plans covered by the Combined Service Annuity provision, determined the additional actuarial liability for all members potentially able to benefit from the portability provision, and allocated the additional actuarial liability back to the various plans based on the proportion of total service credit in each plan. The analysis produced the following results:

Number of Active Members With Combined Service

Members Valued as Active in 7/1/2000 Actuarial Valuations

 

Prior or
Current Service in:

PERA General

PERA P&F

PERA Local Correctional

MSRS State Employees

MSRS State Patrol

MSRS Correctional

MSRS Legislators

MSRS Elected

MSRS Judges

TRA

Duluth Teachers

St. Paul Teachers

Minneapolis Teachers

MERF

Subtotal

PERA General

220

177

94

1,753

2

43

4

0

1

1,353

3

48

52

97

3,847

PERA P&F

1,946

0

59

65

14

26

2

0

0

53

3

0

3

3

2,174

PERA Local Correctional

2,088

54

0

23

0

16

0

0

0

14

0

0

0

0

2,195

MSRS State Employees

2,817

32

14

0

3

233

6

0

0

501

1

22

11

12

3,652

MSRS State Patrol

73

173

2

27

0

5

0

0

0

10

0

0

0

0

290

MSRS Correctional

192

17

45

622

1

0

0

0

0

55

0

0

0

0

932

MSRS Legislators

27

0

0

7

0

0

0

0

0

18

0

0

0

0

52

MSRS Elected

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

MSRS Judges

68

0

0

8

0

0

8

0

0

6

0

0

0

0

90

TRA

5,430

11

8

582

2

18

9

0

0

0

97

327

526

6

7,016

Duluth Teachers

87

0

0

20

0

0

0

0

0

294

0

7

2

0

410

St. Paul Teachers

546

1

4

72

0

2

0

0

0

838

0

0

205

1

1,669

Minneapolis Teachers

612

0

7

78

0

3

0

0

0

1,011

0

99

2

8

1,820

MERF

20

0

0

11

0

0

0

0

0

3

0

0

0

0

34

Subtotal

14,126

465

233

3,268

22

346

29

0

1

4,156

104

503

801

127

24,181

 

Number of Former Members With Combined Service

Members Valued as Inactive in 7/1/2000 Actuarial Valuations

 

Prior or
Current Service in:

PERA General

PERA P&F

PERA Local Correctional

MSRS State Employees

MSRS State Patrol

MSRS Correctional

MSRS Legislators

MSRS Elected

MSRS Judges

TRA

Duluth Teachers

St. Paul Teachers

Minneapolis Teachers

MERF

Subtotal

PERA General

22

23

0

284

0

6

3

0

0

226

0

30

32

15

641

PERA P&F

52

0

0

3

0

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

58

PERA Local Correctional

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

MSRS State Employees

282

6

0

0

0

16

4

0

0

55

0

5

4

2

374

MSRS State Patrol

0

1

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

2

MSRS Correctional

0

0

0

7

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

7

MSRS Legislators

3

0

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

3

0

0

0

0

7

MSRS Elected

0

0

0

1

0

0

2

0

0

1

0

0

0

0

4

MSRS Judges

2

0

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

3

TRA

475

3

0

71

0

0

3

0

0

0

0

38

137

0

727

Duluth Teachers

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

St. Paul Teachers

13

0

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

30

0

0

4

0

48

Minneapolis Teachers

12

0

0

4

0

0

0

0

0

23

0

7

0

0

46

MERF

1

0

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

2

0

0

0

0

4

Subtotal

862

33

0

375

0

24

12

0

0

340

0

80

177

17

1,921

 

Resulting Likely Additional Pension Liability From Portability

Present Value of Future Benefits
(dollars in thousands)

 

 

VALUATION METHODOLOGY

CSA STUDY METHODOLOGY

Fund

Current
Load Factor

Members

Former Members

Subtotal

Members

Former Members

Subtotal

PERA General

2.5%

8,856,550

406,633

9,263,183

8,722,572

683,448

9,406,020

PERA P&F

-

2,560,513

45,793

2,606,306

2,558,037

63,453

2,621,490

PERA Local Correctional

-

106,084

0

106,084

88,523

0

88,523

MSRS State Employees

-

4,776,013

419,457

5,195,470

4,792,783

584,194

5,376,977

MSRS State Patrol

-

311,750

3,345

315,095

311,388

4,383

315,771

MSRS Correctional

-

353,929

15,104

369,033

346,900

24,028

370,928

MSRS Legislators

-

24,935

8,884

33,819

25,773

13,865

39,638

MSRS Elected

-

0

572

572

0

769

769

MSRS Judges

-

99,664

697

100,361

99,299

708

100,007

TRA

1.0%

8,547,643

488,816

9,036,459

8,584,640

503,015

9,087,655

Duluth Teachers

-

133,868

6,463

140,331

149,187

6,463

155,650

St. Paul Teachers

-

591,534

6,990

598,524

634,187

29,261

663,448

Minneapolis Teachers

-

764,076

19,212

783,288

796,225

77,839

874,064

MERF

-

431,393

9,342

440,735

432,018

20,464

452,482

GRAND TOTAL

27,557,952

1,431,308

28,989,260

27,541,532

2,011,890

29,533,423

Likely or Actual Actuarial Assumption Change Recommendations

Arising out of the six experience studies and the Combined Service Annuity study recently competed, Milliman USA has formulated or will be developing specific actuarial assumption change recommendations.

The following compares the likely actuarial assumption change recommendations (for the General State Employees Retirement Plan of the Minnesota State Retirement System (MSRS-General), the General Employee Retirement Plan of the Public Employees Retirement Association (PERA-General), and the Teachers Retirement Association (TRA)) and the actual actuarial assumption change recommendations (for the Duluth Teachers Retirement Fund Association (DTRFA), the Minneapolis Teachers Retirement Fund Association (MTRFA), and the St. Paul Teachers Retirement Fund Association (StPTRFA)) formulated by Milliman USA:

Assumption

MSRS-General

PERA-General

TRA

DTRFA

MTRFA

StPTRFA

Interest

No change

No change

No change

No change

No change

No change

Individual Salary Increase

Potential change

Increase in
the select component

Increase in
the select component

Change to select and ultimate assumption

Change to select and ultimate assumption

Change to select and ultimate assumption

Total Payroll Growth

Change dependent on future State employee workforce expectations

No Change

No Change

No specific indication

No specific indication

No specific indication

Retirement Rates

Change to reflect greater early retirement experience

Change to reflect greater "Rule of 90" utilization

Change to reflect greater "Rule of 90" utilization

No change

Change to reflect greater early retirement utilization

Change to reflect greater early retirement utilization

Optional Annuity Form Election

Minor modifications

Minor modifications

Minor modifications

Minor modifications

Minor modifications

Minor modifications

Disability Rates

Minor modifications

No change

Significant increase in rates

Significant reduction in rates

Reduction in rates

Reduction in rates

Separation Rates

Significant increases in both select and ultimate rates

Adjustment to soften the prior assumption changes

Modest modifications

Change to select and ultimate assumption

Change to select and ultimate assumption reflecting a higher turn-over problem

Change to select and ultimate assumption reflecting a higher turn-over problem

Annuitant Mortality

Likely additional setback for males

Likely additional setback for males

Likely change in setbacks

Reduction in setback for females

Change in setback for females

No change

Disabilitant Mortality

No change likely

No change likely

No change likely

No change

No change

No change

Active Mortality

No change likely

No change likely

Minor modifications likely

Minor modifications

Adoption of TRA active mortality table

Additional setback

Combined Service Annuity Loading

1.2 percent load on active member liabilities, 40 percent load on former member liabilities

0.8 percent load on active member liabilities, 60 percent load on former member liabilities

Initial 1.4 percent load on active member liabilities, 4.0 percent load on former member liabilities, with modification for retirement rate change

10 percent load on active and former member liabilities

4.0 percent load on active member liabilities and 30 percent load on former member liabilities

7.0 percent load on active member liabilities and 30 percent load on former member liabilities

Additionally, for the statewide and major local retirement plans which were not covered by the experience studies, Milliman USA has formulated load factor recommendations arising out of the Combined Service Annuity Provisions study, as follows:

Plan

Active Member Liability Load

Former Member Liability Load

Legislators

--

30%

MSRS-Correctional

--

30%

State Patrol

--

30%

Elected State Officers

--

30%

PERA-P&F

--

30%

Local Correctional

--

30%

MERF

0.2%

30%

Judges

--

30%

Conclusion

Because changes are contemplated for both individual salary increase and total payroll assumptions, which are statutory assumptions, the total package of assumption changes can not be accomplished until the next legislative session. The recommended changes for the three major retirement plans still need to be fully developed by Milliman USA in consultation with the various plan administrators and the plan actuarial consultants, so Commission action on at least some of the potential actuarial assumption changes will need to be delayed until early in the 2002 Legislative Session.